The number of deliveries is irrelevant in the long term. Tomorrow morning Tesla will announce Q1 deliveries. I’m hopeful that they will report higher than expected numbers. If they do, the stock will rise 5-10%, if they don’t the stock will go down 5-10%.

Regardless of what happens, in 2 months they will launch early testing of unsupervised FSD, before the quarter is over they will unveil the more affordable model, and by the end of the year they will be manufacturing Optimus robots in decent quantities. Those are the three things that matter this year. The next generation of vehicles will dictate the value of the company over the next few years. Further fueling value appreciation over the longer term will be Cybercabs and the Tesla Network adding billions to the bottom line. This profit will then be funneled into funding factories around the world to manufacture Optimus in the tens of millions.

On top of the explosive growth coming from those product lines is the steady but meaningful growth of existing product lines that aren’t as flashy. Stationary storage, Autobidder, Semi, and sleeper services like distributed AI compute are growing or will begin growing soon. Tesla is a tech conglomerate in the making. This is partly why Elon Musk sees rapid growth over the coming few years. Essentially what is happening is that multiple startups who share engineers and resources are all hitting an inflection point at similar times. Since the are all under one metaphorical roof, their growth and scale compounds.

As Gali posted, the risk we should be more focused on than lower than expected deliveries is if Tesla will be treated as a monopoly in the coming years and forced to split into multiple companies.